Family offices make fewer deals but still flock to AI startup mega-rounds

Investment firms representing ultra-wealthy families are experiencing a notable decline in deal-making activities throughout 2025, with October marking a stark downturn. Data from Fintrx, a private wealth platform, reveals that family offices executed just 51 direct investments last month, reflecting a significant 63% decrease compared to the previous year. Despite this trend, these family offices are still heavily investing in substantial fundraising rounds for artificial intelligence ventures. Notably, the Winklevoss twins' investment firm participated in a remarkable $1.4 billion Series E funding round for Crusoe, subsequently elevating the company’s valuation to $10 billion. Additionally, Hillspire, the family office of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, took part in a $2 billion Series B funding round for Reflection, an open-source AI model lab that is now valued at $8 billion. Family offices have also shown interest in high-profile fundraising events, such as the $863 million Series B2 round for Commonwealth Fusion. This round, which garnered attention in August, saw participation from Hillspire, Laurene Powell Jobs' Emerson Collective, and Duquesne Family Office led by Stanley Druckenmiller. While the total number of deals from family offices has dwindled, the magnitude of the deals remains robust. A recent PwC report indicates that in the first half of 2025, family offices executed 23% fewer deals, yet the overall value of these deals only fell by 18%. The percentage of family office transactions exceeding $100 million remained stable at 15%, and those surpassing $500 million saw only a slight decrease of 1 percentage point. The surge in large funding rounds for AI firms has significantly boosted deal values. Family offices invested nearly the same amount in AI and machine learning during the first half of this year as they did in the same period of 2023, but the total deal value surged to $123.3 billion, nearly tripling from previous figures. Even prior to the AI boom, family offices were gravitating towards larger investments. Over the past decade, investments below $25 million have decreased from 70% to 59%, while deals ranging from $25 million to $100 million have climbed to 26%. Furthermore, the share of deals valued over $100 million has increased from 9% to 15%, indicating a shift towards larger returns as family offices aspire to become significant players in the global investment arena.