At an exclusive party at Nobu Malibu, bankers told me they are rushing to prepare IPOs after a wild market reversal

In a notable shift from the usual crowd of celebrities, Wednesday night’s gathering at Nobu Malibu featured bankers and startup founders mingling over caviar handrolls and lychee martinis. This event marked the closing of the Jefferies Private Growth Conference, a platform that connects investors with executives from late-stage companies such as Ramp and Databricks. The atmosphere was electric, buoyed by the celebratory spirit of impending mega IPOs from industry giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The recent resurgence in the Nasdaq Composite, which has surged approximately 10% in just two weeks, has led to an optimistic outlook among attendees. One banker remarked on the rapid changes in sentiment, noting that just before the conference, their trading desk experienced the highest level of stock buying activity since the onset of COVID-19. "Two weeks ago, I would have predicted that tech IPOs wouldn’t emerge until summer," he stated. "Now, I believe we may see some companies making their public debut in the next four to six weeks." Traditionally, the sentiment on Wall Street has held that the IPO market wouldn't fully reopen until after SpaceX’s much-anticipated public offering in June. However, the banker mentioned that this perspective is shifting. "SpaceX is now seen as such a major player that it’s no longer viewed as a gatekeeper for the IPO market. There’s palpable excitement surrounding it, but it doesn’t mean other companies can’t go public before SpaceX does." Despite the growing optimism, caution remains prevalent. Many startup CEOs are still apprehensive due to the poor performance of recently listed companies like Figma, which has seen its stock plummet over 80% since its debut. One banker reflected, "There’s a palpable fear among them. This apprehension could lead to significant stagnation in the market." The contrast between public and private market valuations poses another hurdle. Recent trends show that public markets are offering lower multiples than their private counterparts, making IPOs less appealing to some founders. "Given these dynamics, many are hesitant to launch an IPO at a potentially lower valuation," a banker explained. While the recent market rebound creates a sense of urgency, the fear of weak post-IPO performance continues to loom large. Founders are caught between the risks of missing out on the current favorable conditions and the lingering caution from past experiences. As one banker summarized the mood from CEOs, "There’s a strong sentiment of ‘Let’s not wait until June; let’s move forward now.’"