35 percent of VMware workloads expected to migrate elsewhere by 2028

According to a recent analysis by Gartner's research VP Julia Palmer, VMware is poised to experience a considerable shift in its customer base over the next few years. Many organizations are either already moving away from VMware or are planning total or partial migrations. This shift follows Broadcom's acquisition of VMware in November 2023, which resulted in several changes that have upset a portion of its clientele. Key issues include increased costs stemming from a transition from perpetual licenses to subscription models, along with the consolidation of products into fewer, pricier options. Additionally, a significant reduction in the number of channel partners authorized to resell VMware technologies has raised concerns among users. The new business strategy adopted by VMware appears to favor larger corporations, consequently prompting many small to medium-sized enterprises to consider alternative solutions. Palmer's insights shared at Gartner’s IT Symposium in Gold Coast, Australia, highlight a notable trend among customers utilizing VMware technology via hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS). Following Broadcom's takeover, a crucial change was implemented that restricts hyperscalers from reselling VMware subscriptions to clients utilizing their cloud services. As a result, Palmer predicts that by 2028, 35% of VMware workloads will migrate to other platforms, with hyperscalers urging their customers to transition to public cloud solutions. In a blog entry from June 2024, VMware stated that the adjustments regarding the sale of VMware licenses for hyperscaler environments aim to enhance consistency and provide customers with greater flexibility and choice. This revised model also encourages more customers to purchase directly from Broadcom, thereby increasing the company's share of the market.