Soldier won $410K in Polymarket bets on timing of Maduro capture, US alleges

A U.S. Army soldier has been apprehended on charges of insider trading, accused of placing bets on the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture through a prediction market platform. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the soldier in question, allegedly earned nearly $410,000 by wagering on Polymarket, leading to his indictment for multiple offenses, including the unlawful use of confidential government information and commodities fraud, as announced by the Department of Justice (DOJ). According to the DOJ, Van Dyke was involved in planning the U.S. military operation dubbed 'Operation Absolute Resolve' aimed at capturing Maduro. Utilizing his access to classified information regarding the operation, he is accused of profiting personally from his knowledge. The indictment states that Van Dyke, a 38-year-old resident of North Carolina stationed at Fort Bragg, has been on active duty since 2008 and has served as a master sergeant with the U.S. Army Special Forces since 2023. His role mandated that he adhere to nondisclosure agreements that prohibited him from disclosing sensitive military information. Van Dyke reportedly began placing his bets roughly one week prior to Maduro's capture on January 3. The charges were filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The DOJ detailed that Van Dyke's successful wagers resulted in a profit of approximately $409,881, which he subsequently transferred to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before moving the funds to a newly established online brokerage account. He allegedly took measures to obscure his identity in relation to the trades linked to the Venezuelan markets. The indictment lays out that Van Dyke created his Polymarket account on December 26, 2025, and engaged in about 13 bets between December 27 and January 26, all predicting various outcomes related to U.S. military action in Venezuela. With classified information at his disposal, he wagered approximately $33,034 on outcomes such as the U.S. forces entering Venezuela by January 31, 2026. In response to questions about Van Dyke at a recent White House briefing, President Trump drew a parallel to former baseball player Pete Rose's betting habits, stating, "Pete Rose, they kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team." Trump indicated that he would look into the matter further.