Thanksgiving cheer comes a day early for U.S. markets

As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., the stock market is already experiencing a festive boost, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all posting gains for the fourth consecutive day. Oracle's shares saw a notable rise of approximately 4% after Deutsche Bank suggested that the recent dip in its stock price presents a promising opportunity for investors, considering the company's overall performance. Other tech and AI-driven companies, including Nvidia and Microsoft, also enjoyed a positive day, contributing to the market's upward momentum. Eric Diton, president and managing director at The Wealth Alliance, commented on the trend, stating, "Thanksgiving week tends to be strong in the markets, and the current sentiment is optimistic." However, the excitement may be tempered as investors turn their attention to potential shifts following the holiday. The futures market indicates an 85% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point in December. Diton warned that if the Fed's decisions fail to meet high expectations, it could lead to a market downturn, although he expressed confidence that they would not disappoint. Looking ahead, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave noted that if Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House National Economic Council, takes over as Fed chair, interest rates could decrease further. This expectation of a more lenient monetary policy is seen as a positive sign for the stock market, with projections for the S&P 500 reaching as high as 8,000 by the end of 2026 from firms like JP Morgan and CFRA. In other market news, major Asian indexes experienced gains, with India's Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex achieving record heights. Apple is set to surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, according to Counterpoint Research, forecasting 243 million iPhones shipped this year compared to Samsung's 235 million. On a less favorable note, China's industrial profits fell by 5.5% in October, marking the largest decline since June, largely attributed to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Meanwhile, a recent MIT study revealed that AI could potentially replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, which equates to $1.2 trillion in wages across several sectors. Finally, Bitcoin continues to face challenges, having dropped over 20% in November, with predictions suggesting a continued decline for the remainder of the year. Despite these hurdles, foreign investors are showing renewed interest in China's more affordable AI valuations, even as U.S. venture capital in AI and robotics surpasses $160 billion this year, compared to just over $10 billion in China.