If we're in an AI bubble, why doesn't it feel like we're in an AI bubble?

As discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) intensify, the question arises: Are we witnessing the birth of an AI bubble? Some industry leaders, including Sam Altman of OpenAI, suggest we might be in the midst of a speculative surge driven by hype and investment. However, the atmosphere surrounding AI feels different than previous financial bubbles. Reflecting on past market bubbles, such as the dot-com boom of the late '90s, one recalls the excitement and rampant investment in tech startups. During that time, conversations were dominated by stock tips and IPOs, creating a palpable energy. Similar patterns emerged in the housing market and again during the cryptocurrency craze. In those instances, the exhilaration could be felt in everyday life, as friends and acquaintances eagerly discussed their investments. Today, while conversations about AI are commonplace—often replacing discussions about streaming shows—there's a noticeable absence of the kind of widespread enthusiasm that characterized earlier bubbles. Outside specific sectors or elite circles where extravagant job offers are commonplace, the general vibe doesn’t seem particularly 'bubbly'. This is supported by the fact that, in stark contrast to previous market trends, the AI industry remains relatively concentrated within a few major tech corporations. For instance, companies like Nvidia and Microsoft have led recent market gains, and many AI professionals are employed by these giants rather than smaller startups. This concentration means that while AI's influence is growing, the average person may not feel the effects directly. Although investments in AI are significant, much of the financial activity is occurring behind corporate doors, making the phenomenon less visible and engaging for the general public. In summary, while the signs of a potential bubble are present—such as increased spending and ambitious deals—the experience of this AI surge appears to be confined to boardrooms rather than backyards. As such, if this bubble were to burst, it remains uncertain whether the average individual would notice the fallout.