Apple and Samsung smartphone growth to take hit from tariff uncertainty: Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research has significantly downgraded its growth predictions for Apple and Samsung's smartphone shipments in 2025, attributing this shift to ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. The firm has revised its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for the year to just 1.9%, a steep decrease from the previously anticipated 4.2%. This adjustment follows U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 'reciprocal tariffs' on various imports, which were briefly exempted for smartphones and electronics. Despite this exemption, the looming tariff uncertainties have prompted Counterpoint to revise its outlook for the two leading smartphone manufacturers. Apple is now projected to experience a modest shipment growth of 2.5% in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 4%. Meanwhile, Samsung is expected to face stagnation, with no growth forecasted after previously estimating a 1.7% rise. Counterpoint Research Associate Director Liz Lee highlighted that the tariff situation is not the sole factor affecting these forecasts, emphasizing weakened demand across not only the U.S. but also in Europe and parts of Asia. The anticipated slowdown in Apple's growth is largely tied to the forthcoming iPhone 16 series and a trend of consumers in emerging markets opting for higher-priced devices. It is important to note that shipment figures do not equate to sales; they represent the number of units manufacturers distribute to retailers, serving as an indicator of anticipated demand. Apple's supply chain has come under scrutiny, especially regarding its heavy reliance on China for iPhone production. In response to tariffs, Apple has been increasing its shipments from India, where production has been ramping up. However, this shift has drawn criticism from Trump, who has expressed a preference for Apple to manufacture in the U.S. Amidst these challenges, Counterpoint did identify Huawei as a positive exception, forecasting an 11% growth in shipments for 2025 due to alleviated sourcing issues for key components, which may allow the Chinese brand to capture significant market share in the mid-to-lower-end segments in its domestic market, buoyed by recent improvements in semiconductor technology.