The next tech revolution probably won’t look anything like the last one

In just over two years, artificial intelligence has transformed from a niche chatbot technology into a powerful force that some tech leaders argue could be as revolutionary as the internet itself. AI is now seen as a fundamental shift in how we interact with technology. However, this transformation is unfolding in ways that are markedly different from past technological advancements such as the internet, social media, and smartphones. Unlike the predictable annual releases of smartphones by companies like Apple and Samsung, AI models are evolving at a breakneck pace, making their development much less predictable. Oren Etzioni, the former CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, highlighted the rapid frequency of updates, stating, "These models are launching far, far faster than once a year. These updates are actually fast and furious." He also pointed out the challenges associated with measuring the performance of these models due to their complexity and generalization. The integration of AI assistants into daily life is expected to differ significantly from the ways in which smartphones and social media became ubiquitous. In the latter industries, established players such as Apple, Google, and Meta solidified their dominance over the years. However, the AI landscape appears more fluid, where being the first mover does not necessarily equate to long-term success. Daniel Keum, an associate professor at Columbia Business School, remarked, "It seems like it won’t be a sort of ‘winner-takes-all’ market." Despite the rapid advancements in AI, some anticipated releases have faced delays. Apple, for instance, has postponed the launch of its updated Siri, with its Worldwide Developers Conference providing little clarity on the timeline. Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering, acknowledged the need for more time to ensure high-quality features for Siri, echoing sentiments from CEO Tim Cook. OpenAI's eagerly awaited GPT-5 model is also yet to be launched, and Meta has reportedly delayed its next major Llama model. As AI technology continues to evolve, the number of businesses utilizing AI has surged, with Stanford University's 2025 AI Index Report revealing that 78% of companies reported using AI in 2024, a significant rise from 55% in 2023. The shifting timelines for AI updates may stem from the difficulty in quantifying performance improvements. A tool may excel in one area while lagging in another, leading to unexpected shifts in functionality. Instances of AI chatbots behaving unpredictably, such as ChatGPT becoming "annoying" after an update, illustrate the challenges tech companies face. Unlike traditional tech sectors where major updates are celebrated, AI advancements may lack similar fanfare. According to Leo Gebbie, a principal analyst at CCS Insight, changes in AI are often incremental and harder to communicate as significant improvements. Technologies that defined the early 2000s, like Facebook and the iPhone, thrived on the 'network effect'—the idea that increased usage enhances a product's value. However, AI platforms, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, do not rely on social connectivity. These services improve with user interaction but do not inherently benefit from widespread adoption among friends or family. The future of AI may also challenge the longstanding notion that being first is best in tech. While platforms like iOS and Android dominate the mobile market, AI may not follow the same trajectory. Users might prefer various specialized AI services for different tasks, reducing the pressure on companies to maintain a competitive edge. As Keum noted, the ability to catch up quickly could reshape the competitive landscape, allowing companies to regain user interest even after falling behind.