Sam Altman’s space data center trash talk is what most experts already believe

In a recent exchange on social media, Sam Altman and Elon Musk engaged in a heated debate, shedding light on the contrasting visions for the future of space computing. Altman's retort to Musk's claims of him being a scammer was pointed: "homeboy you’re the one selling public market investors on short-term space datacenters." This exchange underscores a sentiment echoed by many experts: the commercial viability of space data centers is still a long way off. SpaceX's ambitious plans to deploy a fleet of orbital data centers aimed at performing AI inference tasks have fueled the company's staggering two-trillion-dollar valuation. Optimistic analysts argue that harnessing this processing power could revolutionize AI models and create a new paradigm in orbital computing. However, conversations with industry experts—from entrepreneurs operating other space data center startups to engineers at Google working on orbital compute projects—reveal a consensus: substantial advancements in rocket affordability and mass production of high-performance satellites are essential before this vision can come to fruition. Musk's response to these challenges is predictable. He points to SpaceX's Starship, a massive rocket expected to conduct its thirteenth test flight possibly as soon as July 16. If successful, this could pave the way for a more viable business model for space data centers. Yet, even with successful test flights, the reality of operational reusability is still likely years away, meaning that launches for data centers might be deprioritized in favor of SpaceX's commitments to NASA and its Starlink network. SpaceX has also acknowledged in its IPO presentations that Starship may not achieve full reusability in the near future, necessitating the disposal of each second stage after launches. This reality undermines the economic feasibility of space data centers. Musk’s assertion that they will begin flying operational satellites next year may hold some truth, but the more pressing question is when SpaceX will be able to scale up production and launches effectively. This, experts suggest, may not be a reality until the 2030s.