Anthropic is having a moment in the private markets; SpaceX could spoil the party

Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities, has been navigating the private market since 2010, witnessing its evolution from a niche space to a bustling arena filled with thousands of institutional investors. Currently, he emphasizes that the spotlight is on three major players: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, each impacting the secondary market in distinct ways. Anderson notes that demand for Anthropic shares has surged to unprecedented levels. According to recent insights from Bloomberg, potential buyers have expressed a readiness to invest $2 billion into Anthropic, contrasting sharply with the struggles OpenAI faces in selling approximately $600 million of its shares. Anderson describes Anthropic as the most sought-after stock in the secondary market, highlighting the lack of available shares for purchase. The company's escalating popularity can be traced back to its high-profile clash with the Department of Defense, which initially posed challenges but ultimately enhanced its brand image as a champion against governmental pressures. This narrative has made Anthropic stand out in a market that has traditionally favored broad investments across tech firms. While many investors are still keen on both Anthropic and OpenAI, Anderson points out that the enthusiasm surrounding OpenAI has waned. He acknowledges that OpenAI shares are currently valued at approximately $765 billion in the secondary market, which is noticeably lower than its primary valuation of $852 billion. OpenAI has also taken steps to regulate secondary trading, urging investors to be wary of brokers claiming to offer access to its equity. In contrast, SpaceX emerges as a stable force in the tumultuous private market landscape. Anderson notes that this company has avoided the significant drop in valuations that has plagued many others since 2022. SpaceX's strategic management has focused on maintaining reasonable stock prices without succumbing to the temptation of maximizing funding round prices, a strategy that has rewarded early investors handsomely. SpaceX's valuation skyrocketed from $12 billion in 2015 to over $1 trillion today, especially as it prepares for an imminent IPO, which could potentially raise between $50 billion and $75 billion. This upcoming public offering is expected to be one of the largest in history, with only Saudi Aramco's debut approaching it in scale. As SpaceX gears up for its IPO, Anderson observes a marked increase in demand for its shares in the secondary market. However, as the IPO date nears, existing shareholders are less inclined to sell, anticipating the liquidity event ahead. This situation poses challenges for Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are reportedly considering their own public offerings this year. With SpaceX leading the way, it may absorb much of the market's available liquidity, leaving less for other upcoming IPOs. Timing will be crucial for Anthropic and OpenAI as they navigate their paths to becoming public companies, with SpaceX setting the stage for what could be a highly competitive market environment.