AI's economic boost isn't showing up in GDP, and Goldman says that's a $115 billion blind spot

Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the landscape of American business; however, its economic impact is not fully reflected in official government statistics, as highlighted by analysts from Goldman Sachs. In a recent report, they noted that while revenue from U.S. companies specializing in AI infrastructure surged by $400 billion since 2022, this growth is not mirrored in the nation’s GDP figures. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that AI technology has contributed approximately $160 billion to real U.S. economic activity since 2022, equating to about 0.7% of GDP. Yet, they pointed out that only around $45 billion of this growth—roughly 0.2% of GDP—has been captured in official records. This discrepancy leaves a staggering $115 billion unaccounted for, illustrating a significant gap between corporate revenue reports and government measurements. The analysts explained that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employs a methodology that treats semiconductors as intermediate inputs. These components are only considered when final products, such as consumer laptops, are sold. Consequently, the value generated by high-performance chips, which are crucial for AI training, does not contribute to GDP until the end products are realized. As a result, the investments made in AI infrastructure, particularly in the realm of semiconductors, are not fully recognized. Moreover, the report indicated that an estimated $75 billion earmarked for developing AI models and cloud-based enterprise solutions has also been omitted from investment statistics. Changes in import policies further complicate the situation, as businesses ramped up imports of servers and networking equipment ahead of anticipated tariffs, artificially inflating investment figures for the first half of 2025. This temporary spike in imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, may have distorted the actual demand for AI-related investments. The challenges of quantifying AI’s impact extend to corporate earnings as well. Despite a record number of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI during their earnings calls in the second quarter, a separate Goldman Sachs report noted that only a small fraction of these firms have been able to provide concrete figures on AI’s effect on their financial performance. In summary, the apparent economic boom driven by AI is significantly underreported, suggesting that the full scope of its contribution to the U.S. economy remains largely unrecognized.