How AI agents could destroy the economy

A recent analysis from Citrini Research has raised alarming concerns about the potential economic fallout from the rise of agentic AI over the next couple of years. The report envisions a future where unemployment rates have surged and the stock market has plummeted by over a third, painting a grim picture of the economy's trajectory. According to the analysis, as AI technology advances, companies increasingly rely on automation, leading to significant layoffs in white-collar jobs. The resulting decrease in consumer spending creates a vicious cycle, where businesses under pressure to cut costs invest even more in AI, further exacerbating the issue. This self-reinforcing cycle creates a scenario that could unravel the economy without any natural checks to halt the decline. The report delves into the effects of integrating AI agents across various industries, highlighting how businesses might opt for cheaper in-house AI solutions instead of hiring external contractors. This trend mirrors the concerns raised by the Death of SaaS scenario but extends further to encompass all business models reliant on optimizing inter-company transactions. While the report has ignited considerable debate online, it is important to note that Citrini presents this analysis more as a scenario than a definitive prediction. Skeptics question whether companies are truly prepared to entrust critical purchasing decisions to AI systems, regardless of their sophistication. However, the scenario posits that many decisions have already been delegated to third-party contractors, lending some credibility to its alarming forecast.