SpaceX primed for double-digit pop on first day, if ‘perps’ trading is any guide

Crypto traders are anticipating a significant debut for SpaceX's much-anticipated IPO, as indicated by trading activity in its perpetual futures. Currently, these contracts are fetching around $162 on the Hyperliquid platform, reflecting a 20% premium over the fixed IPO price of $135 per share, though this is a notable drop from the earlier highs of over $220 seen shortly after the futures were launched in May. On Binance, SpaceX perpetual futures are trading at comparable levels, suggesting a consistent interest among investors. Reports indicate that the offering is oversubscribed by four times, meaning demand is approximately quadruple the available shares. With trading set to commence on the Nasdaq this Friday, the valuation of SpaceX at $1.77 trillion would position it as the seventh-largest public company in the U.S., surpassing Tesla's current market cap of around $1.6 trillion. Eric Chen, co-founder and CEO of Injective Labs, remarked, "Perpetuals on Hyperliquid indicate interest in the SpaceX IPO, but the enthusiasm is measured at best. These markets are characterized by active and risk-tolerant traders, and they are not indicating a significant premium compared to other pre-IPO entities. While this is a notable signal, it does not guarantee how the broader market will respond when SpaceX officially lists." The current decline in SpaceX's perpetual futures mirrors a broader downturn in cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin and Ether experiencing declines of 20% and 23%, respectively, since the launch of the perpetual contracts. Perpetual futures, known as 'perps,' enable investors to speculate on asset prices without an expiration date and leverage their stakes, making them a favored trading method in the crypto arena—accounting for over 70% of the trading volume on centralized exchanges, according to CoinGecko.