A new way to spot tremors in prediction markets

A former engineer from Instacart, Nikshep Saravanan, has launched an innovative platform named Tremor.live, utilizing Claude Code and hosted through Vercel. This new tool aims to track fluctuations within Polymarket, a prediction market where users can bet on the outcomes of future events. The primary purpose of Tremor is to identify sudden price changes that may indicate insider knowledge. Saravanan explains that if the likelihood of a ceasefire in a conflict increases from 50% to 80% without any news, it could suggest that someone with inside information is influencing the market on Polymarket. An example he cites is the anticipation around Taylor Swift’s rumored engagement, which likely spurred trading activity based on non-public knowledge. Currently, Tremor monitors around 500 active prediction markets on Polymarket, analyzing real-time price movements and assigning an intensity score from 0 to 10 based on the significance of the shift. Additionally, Tremor connects with X, utilizing Grok's API to sift through tweets for discussions that may clarify the reasons behind market changes. This feature provides traders and analysts with a concise summary of whether the price movements are driven by new public information or suggest insider trading. On a recent check, one of the most significant market movements tracked by Tremor.live was regarding the question, "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?" This market received a high intensity rating of 7.7, indicating a drastic shift. Tremor's analysis suggests that traders are bracing for potential delays or cancellations of Tesla's robotaxi timeline, pointing to unresolved technical or regulatory hurdles highlighted in recent insider posts on X. Tremor is still in its minimum viable product (MVP) phase but is rapidly evolving. Saravanan is actively working on adding new features and has made the project available on GitHub for public exploration.