WFH is a bigger driver of entry-level job woes than AI, researchers say

In recent years, the narrative surrounding the decline of entry-level job opportunities has often pointed fingers at artificial intelligence. Notably, figures like Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, have suggested that AI could potentially eliminate a significant portion of entry-level white-collar jobs. Similarly, Demis Hassabis, the CEO of Google DeepMind, has observed a slowdown in hiring for junior roles and internships. However, new research conducted by Peter John Lambert, a postdoctoral research fellow at the London School of Economics, and Yannick Schindler, a senior research economist at the Ellison Institute of Technology, indicates that the rise of remote work may be a far more substantial factor in this hiring trend. By analyzing a vast dataset from Revelio Labs, which includes résumés of 243 million new hires, and Lightcast data on 407 million job postings across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia from 2017 to 2025, the researchers found that work-from-home (WFH) arrangements are a stronger predictor of reduced junior hiring than exposure to generative AI. The authors assert that their findings point to WFH as a clearer indicator of the decline in early-career positions, challenging the prevailing idea that AI is the primary culprit in this job market shift. They argue that previous studies may have conflated the two trends, as jobs more likely to be impacted by AI—such as software developers, consultants, and data scientists—are also those that can be performed remotely. When the researchers analyzed the data for the two factors separately, both remote work and AI exposure were correlated with weaker junior hiring. Yet, when they examined both variables together, the influence of AI diminished significantly, often becoming statistically negligible, while the impact of remote work remained robust. The implications suggest that the challenges in hiring junior talent may stem more from organizational issues rather than technological ones. According to the researchers, WFH arrangements can complicate supervision and hinder on-the-job learning, which may deter companies from investing in early-career talent. While AI continues to transform the landscape of entry-level work, with tools like ChatGPT and GitHub Copilot automating tasks traditionally assigned to junior employees, remote work dynamics are reshaping hiring patterns. The study estimates that by 2025, professions with high remote work exposure may experience a 4-to-5 percentage point greater decline in junior hiring compared to those less conducive to remote work. Current federal data supports these findings, showing that the unemployment rate for recent college graduates stood at 5.7% in the first quarter, compared to 4.2% for all workers. Additionally, the analysis revealed a sharp decline in entry-level hiring post-2022 across the four countries studied, with a staggering 29% drop in the US compared to pre-pandemic levels. The researchers caution against concluding that AI will not disrupt labor markets in the future. Instead, they propose that it may be premature to assert that AI is currently displacing a large number of junior workers. They conclude that if WFH is indeed dampening the motivation to hire entry-level talent, companies must reconsider their approaches to training and managing young employees in hybrid work environments.