Quantum computing is having a moment. But the technology remains futuristic

Quantum computing is quietly gaining momentum, though it may not yet have the same level of excitement as artificial intelligence. Major industry players, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, and the U.S. government, are investing substantial resources in a competition to create the first viable quantum computer. Last year alone, startups dedicated to quantum technology attracted approximately $2 billion, according to a report by McKinsey & Co., as investors flock to an industry poised for nearly $100 billion in revenue over the next decade. Despite the hype, the current state of quantum computing is still largely theoretical. For instance, revenue generated by quantum computing companies was reported to be under $750 million in 2024. Yet, significant advancements are being made. In recent months, Microsoft introduced its inaugural quantum chip, while Google suggested that practical applications may be just five years away. Amazon has also made headlines with its error-correcting quantum processor, and IBM has laid out an ambitious plan to develop a functional quantum computer by 2029. In addition to these tech giants, numerous smaller companies and academic institutions are diving into the intricate mathematics, software, and possible business models surrounding quantum technology. Some of these firms are publicly traded, leading to stock market fluctuations driven by news developments. In January, remarks from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang about the timeline for practical quantum computing sent stocks tumbling, though he later backtracked, expressing surprise at the market's reaction. As of now, quantum computers are primarily used for research, with no practical applications for everyday tasks. However, their potential is immense. If developed successfully, quantum systems could perform calculations and tasks that are currently impossible or would take an impractical amount of time on conventional computers. To understand quantum computing, one must rethink the concept of computation itself. Traditional computers rely on billions of transistors that operate as binary switches—either on or off. In contrast, quantum computers utilize qubits, which function based on the principles of quantum mechanics. The state of qubits is characterized by their entanglement, meaning that a change in one qubit affects the probabilities of others. Operating these systems often requires sophisticated infrastructure, including extremely low temperatures, close to absolute zero. Most current quantum applications focus on simulating chemical and physical phenomena. As Microsoft's Vice President of Advanced Quantum Development, Krysta Svore, explains, while quantum computers may not be suitable for every task, their use in chemistry and material science is particularly promising, given that 96% of the world’s manufactured goods rely on these fields. One well-established application for quantum computing is in encryption. The U.S. government and other nations are closely monitoring developments in this area due to national security implications. Concerns exist that quantum computers could eventually crack digital encryption methods, endangering sensitive information. John Young, Chief Operating Officer at Quantum eMotion, highlights this risk, stating that the day a capable quantum computer is developed could lead to chaos in cybersecurity. In a national security memo issued in 2022, the Biden administration noted that quantum computing poses significant risks to both economic and national security. The potential for disruption in civilian and military communications is a serious concern, as existing encryption protocols could be rendered ineffective against quantum attacks. While there are currently no algorithms that a quantum computer can run that cannot also be executed on traditional computers, several research groups claim to have achieved 'quantum supremacy.' This term refers to demonstrating that a quantum computer can solve a problem significantly faster than a classical computer. Google first announced its achievement in 2019, showcasing the ability of its quantum system to perform random circuit sampling—an exercise primarily meant to benchmark quantum capabilities. The future potential of quantum computing lies in various fields, including medicine, chemistry, and materials science. Google anticipates breakthroughs in drug discovery and the commercialization of fusion energy. Moreover, there's a budding optimism that these computers could generate training data for AI applications that involve vast numbers of potential solutions. Historically significant algorithms, such as Shor's algorithm, illustrate the power of quantum computing in factorizing large numbers rapidly, raising alarms in military circles that rely on traditional encryption methods. The Pentagon has warned that without effective countermeasures, the consequences of adversarial use of quantum computers could be catastrophic. Microsoft has recognized the national security implications of quantum technology, framing the race for quantum security as a competition against China. The U.S. government is actively working on transitioning to post-quantum encryption methods to safeguard against future threats. Companies like Apple have already begun integrating these advanced encryption techniques into their services. Though much of the current work in quantum computing remains theoretical, significant strides are being made in error correction to enhance the stability and reliability of qubits. Presently, qubits can fail up to 1 in 1,000 times, but recent advancements have reportedly reduced this error rate significantly. As for scaling quantum computers, current systems have varying numbers of qubits—Google's Willow chip boasts 105 qubits, while Microsoft's Majorana chip has eight, and IBM's Starling aims for 200. Experts predict that a truly functional quantum computer will require around 1 million qubits. The coming years will be pivotal in determining whether these ambitious goals can be achieved.