Polymarket launches private company trading so investors can speculate on Anthropic, OpenAI

Polymarket is making significant strides into the realm of private investment by introducing prediction markets linked to key milestones of private companies that investors frequently discuss but cannot directly invest in. This innovative move allows traders to speculate on critical events such as company valuations, IPO timelines, and secondary-market activities for high-profile names like OpenAI and Anthropic. In this endeavor, Polymarket has partnered with Nasdaq Private Market, which will serve as the exclusive provider of resolution data. This partnership ensures that the information determining contract payouts is reliable and accurate. The introduction of these event contracts could address a common frustration faced by many investors: the inability to invest in companies that generate substantial value and brand recognition before going public. According to Nasdaq, over 1,600 unicorns—companies valued at a billion dollars or more—exist, yet only accredited investors and well-connected individuals typically have access to direct investments in these private firms. Starting today, Polymarket's offerings allow traders to take positions on whether specific events in the private market will occur, albeit without equity ownership or voting rights. For instance, one of the current markets on Polymarket speculates whether OpenAI will achieve a valuation of over $1 trillion before 2027. Another market questions if Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500 billion by 2026. Additionally, there is a contract regarding whether Anthropic will surpass OpenAI in valuation at any point this year. These markets rely on data from Nasdaq Private Market, which has taken the unprecedented step of making valuation data publicly accessible for free, eliminating the need for a subscription. While other platforms like Kalshi offer event contracts concerning private companies' IPOs, they rely on a variety of sources for resolution, lacking a focused approach to private company valuations. According to Nasdaq Private Market's data, the potential for these contracts to gain traction is evident. For example, on Anthropic's company page, the estimated share price chart displays a remarkable increase of over 1,500% as of May 5, with a highest bid of $260.80 and a last trade recorded at $234.00. This development provides individuals with an earlier opportunity to engage in private-market value creation, while also giving institutional investors a real-time perspective on how traders are assessing private company dynamics. Moreover, as the secondary market for these private firms is often fragmented, a liquid prediction market could serve as a valuable signal for investors dealing with companies where public comparisons are lacking and fresh data is scarce. Ultimately, the key question remains whether private-market information can support contracts that are transparent enough for trading, sufficiently liquid to be impactful, and reliable enough to resolve correctly.