Electronic warfare in the Persian Gulf: How GPS interference is disrupting the Middle East

In the wake of the U.S. and Israel's initial strikes against Iran on February 28, a peculiar shift in maritime behavior was noted in the Persian Gulf. The data analytics company Kpler reported unusual movements from vessels, with location data indicating that some ships appeared to travel over land and executed abrupt, polygonal turns. This maneuvering trend has intensified since the onset of hostilities, affecting not just maritime operations but also aviation and ground transportation across the Middle East. The surge in GPS disruptions has unveiled critical vulnerabilities in the American-made navigation system, which is widely relied upon for maritime and aerial navigation. For years, Kpler and similar firms have documented instances of oil tankers in the Gulf using spoofing techniques to manipulate their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals—essentially hiding their real locations to evade sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at Kpler, noted that the manipulation of these signals has become increasingly common, especially with the ongoing conflict. Within the first day of the recent conflict, maritime intelligence firm Windward recorded over 1,100 vessels in the Gulf experiencing AIS interference. This number saw a staggering 55% increase just one week later. Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), highlighted that various Gulf states are likely attempting to jam GPS signals to protect critical infrastructure from drone and missile threats. Such electronic interference is becoming a norm in modern warfare, similar to tactics observed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, these disruptions have significant repercussions for everyday life. Erratic GPS signals have caused aircraft to appear as if they are traveling in unpredictable wave-like patterns, while delivery services have reported their riders being misplaced off the coast of Dubai. Public safety concerns are also on the rise as these navigational challenges could obstruct emergency services that depend on reliable GPS data. Lisa Dyer, executive director of the GPS Innovation Alliance, pointed out that while shipping activity in the Persian Gulf has decreased due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, vessels from nations like China and India still maintain transit rights. Accurate positioning is crucial for these vessels to avoid collisions in the narrow Strait, which measures merely 21 miles (33 km) at its narrowest point. Compounding the issue, Iranian military capabilities appear to be bolstered by potential access to China's BeiDou navigation system, as suggested by Jack Hidary, CEO of navigation technology firm SandboxAQ. This system could be enhancing the precision of Iran's missile strikes. Although Iranian officials have not confirmed their use of BeiDou, past acknowledgments of its accuracy have surfaced in state media. Despite the challenges posed by GPS disruptions, Iranian strikes continue, raising questions about the sources of Iran's military technology. Swope noted that even if Iran is utilizing BeiDou, it would not require direct support from China, as modern navigation chips can receive signals from multiple global systems. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is putting the reliability of satellite-based navigation systems to the test. Industry experts like Luca Ferrara from SandboxAQ argue that reliance solely on satellite networks is being called into question, especially with alternative systems like BeiDou and Russia's GLONASS gaining prominence. As tensions escalate, the U.S. military is reportedly preparing to deploy a new, jam-resistant GPS signal, which could help American forces operate effectively despite the pervasive jamming in the region.