Think tank games out how to respond to disaster scenarios in space warfare

Picture this scenario: The United States military detects an enigmatic spacecraft maneuvering in proximity to one of the Space Force's critical missile-warning satellites, situated over 22,000 miles above the equator. This satellite, with a construction and launch cost running into billions, serves as a key sentinel monitoring for ballistic missile threats that could impact the U.S. homeland or its military installations abroad. Suddenly, communication with this satellite is lost, leading ground controllers from a military base near Denver into a flurry of activity to diagnose the issue. Two potential explanations emerge. Could the nearby spacecraft have deliberately compromised or destroyed the satellite? Alternatively, could it be a malfunction inherent to the harsh conditions of space? In the case of a hostile act, questions abound regarding intention and perpetrator. Conversely, if it were a technical failure, what steps could be taken to regain control? Such dilemmas could significantly hinder decision-making during critical moments. In response to these pressing questions, a think tank composed of former Air Force and Space Force officials engaged in a two-day workshop earlier this year, aimed at exploring these scenarios. The group released their findings and recommendations recently. "We convened 50 experts from military, government, industry, and academia," explained Charles Galbreath, a retired Space Force colonel and director of space studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. "Our goal was to analyze how conflicts in space could unfold and how the U.S. and its allies might effectively respond in various situations." The workshop's facilitators presented a series of hypothetical aggressive actions, or vignettes, beginning with a provocative maneuver by China. This involved docking one of its satellites to a nonfunctional European commercial satellite and repositioning it in orbit without prior notification. Participants were then informed of escalating hostile actions attributed to China, Russia, Iran, and an unidentified adversary at set intervals throughout the exercise.