More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off

A recent analysis has uncovered that more than half of the long-shot bets placed on military actions through Polymarket yield successful outcomes. This finding raises significant concerns regarding the potential implications of prediction markets on the security of sensitive information. The research, conducted by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective—a non-profit organization focused on research and advocacy—indicates that long-shot bets, defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or lower, achieved an average win rate of approximately 52 percent in military and defense-related markets. In contrast, the overall win rate for politics-centric markets stood at 25 percent, with just 14 percent for all types of markets on the platform. This analysis amplifies worries among regulators and lawmakers about the risks associated with insiders betting on military operations, as it could potentially compromise classified information. The report examined over 400,000 prediction markets that were settled on Polymarket from January 2021 to March 2026. This scrutiny comes on the heels of a recent case where U.S. prosecutors charged a soldier who allegedly placed bets on a military operation targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, currently on active duty, is accused of wagering approximately $33,034 on bets related to U.S. forces in Venezuela while in possession of classified intel. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges, which mark the first instance of U.S. prosecution for insider trading within prediction markets. Earlier this year, similar charges were brought against an Israeli reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to gamble on military actions in their country. The ACDC warns that markets tied to political outcomes determined by a small group of decision-makers, particularly in the military and defense sectors, are inherently at risk for insider trading, posing threats not only to information security but also to the fairness for regular bettors.