The world is just not quite ready for humanoids yet

Prominent roboticist and co-founder of iRobot, Rodney Brooks, has raised concerns about a potential investment bubble surrounding humanoid robots. In a recent essay, he highlighted the massive influx of venture capital into companies like Figure, yet he argues that despite this financial enthusiasm, humanoid robots are unlikely to master dexterity—the fine motor skills necessary for effective functioning, making them, in his view, impractical. This perspective may come as a surprise to many investors in the sector, but it resonates with various robotics-focused venture capitalists and AI researchers who have expressed skepticism about the imminent adoption of humanoid robots, projecting a timeline of several years or even a decade before they become commonplace. Fady Saad, a general partner at Cybernetix Ventures and a former co-founder of MassRobotics, mentioned that, aside from sending humanoids into space, he sees no significant market demand at this time. Saad also raised vital safety concerns regarding the interaction between humans and humanoid robots, particularly in environments like factories where they might operate alongside people. He cautioned that if humanoids were to enter domestic spaces, the risks could escalate, especially for children and pets. "If this thing falls on pets or kids, it will hurt them," he stated, emphasizing the need for caution. He also questioned public comfort with humanoids in homes, raising issues about hacking and unpredictable behaviors. The timeline for humanoid robot development remains uncertain, a crucial aspect for investors who require clear returns on their capital. Sanja Fidler, Nvidia’s vice president of AI research, likened the current surge in interest to the early days of self-driving cars, noting that while the excitement is palpable, the journey to full functionality and widespread adoption is fraught with challenges. Nvidia's chief scientist, Bill Dally, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that while technological advancements are exciting, humanoids are incredibly complex systems that still have a long way to go before achieving their full potential. Seth Winterroth, a partner at Eclipse, highlighted the intricacies involved in developing humanoids, likening their movement capabilities to systems with many degrees of freedom that complicate software updates and economic viability. Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, serves as a case in point for the obstacles facing the industry. Initially announced in 2021 and expected to debut in 2023, the robot was ultimately revealed in 2024, operating under human control rather than autonomously. Meanwhile, robotics startup Figure has attracted skepticism despite its $39 billion valuation, questioning how many operational humanoids it has deployed. Despite these challenges, Brooks remains optimistic about the future of humanoid technology, predicting that the robots of tomorrow may not resemble the human-like forms currently envisioned but will likely feature wheels and other non-human traits, with their widespread availability still more than a decade away. Startups like Proception and Loomia are exploring the dexterity technology Brooks doubts will be possible, while companies like K-Scale Labs and Hugging Face are already generating significant interest in their humanoid offerings, with pre-orders demonstrating a tangible market appetite. As the landscape of humanoid robotics evolves, it's clear that while potential exists, the path to practical and safe implementation is riddled with hurdles that the industry must navigate carefully.