A Falcon 9 upper stage will strike the Moon in August

Astronomers are anticipating an intriguing event this August, as the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, which took off in early 2025, is expected to collide with the Moon. Bill Gray, renowned for his work on Project Pluto—a software designed for tracking near-Earth objects—has detailed the expected impact in a recent report. The collision is scheduled to occur at 2:44 AM ET (06:44 UTC) on August 5, likely on the Moon's near side. The Falcon 9 upper stage measures 13.8 meters (45 feet) in height and has a diameter of 3.7 meters (12 feet). Due to the absence of an atmosphere on the Moon, the stage will strike the lunar surface without disintegration. While observers in the eastern U.S., Canada, and parts of South America will have the opportunity to see the Moon, Gray cautions that the impact is likely to be too faint for Earth-based telescopes to detect. Gray and his fellow astronomers are confident that this object is indeed the second stage of the Falcon 9 that launched two lunar landers—Firefly's Blue Ghost and ispace's Hakuto-R—on January 15, 2025. Post-launch, the two landers, along with a payload fairing and the upper stage, were monitored after their separation. Although both landers made their journey to the Moon, only Blue Ghost successfully landed, while the fairing re-entered Earth's atmosphere. The upper stage, designated as 2025-010D, continued to orbit the Earth at a higher altitude and did not re-enter the atmosphere. Gray noted that it has had several close encounters with the Moon and Earth but none close enough to suggest a potential impact until now. Observations have been collected consistently, totaling 1,053 as of February 26, 2026, during periods when visibility was favorable against the backdrop of the Sun or Moon.