AI was supposed to kill engineering jobs, but new data suggests they’re the most resilient

The discourse surrounding the impact of AI on employment is escalating, particularly in the tech industry. Recent layoffs reached a peak not seen in years during May, with AI cited as a leading factor by the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Software engineering, often perceived as the most susceptible field to automation due to the rise of AI-driven coding tools, shows a different narrative according to findings from the venture capital firm SignalFire. Asher Bantock, SignalFire’s head of research, noted that while many layoffs are attributed to AI, the hiring trends tell a contrasting story. "The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI, and specifically they’ll say AI with respect to code; they’ll say one engineer could do the job of however many engineers in the past," he explained. Yet, SignalFire’s data, which monitors millions of employees across over 80 million companies, indicates that engineering roles are among the most resilient. Instead of focusing solely on layoffs—which can be misleading as many people delay updating their employment status—SignalFire opted to assess hiring data as a more reliable indicator of workforce trends. Their latest report revealed that while overall hiring across major tech firms has decreased by 25% since 2019, engineering roles have faced a mere 11% decline. Notably, engineers made up 55% of all new hires in 2025 among the 12 major tech companies included in their analysis, a notable increase from 46% in 2019. The demand for engineers was particularly robust in early-stage startups, which collectively increased their engineering hires by 7% compared to 2019. Bantock argued that if AI were genuinely replacing engineering talent, hiring in that sector would have been the first to decline during this tech hiring slowdown. Instead, the data illustrates that engineering positions are expanding at a rate faster than most other tech functions. Despite warnings from industry leaders like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei about potential job losses due to AI, the company's economics head, Peter McCrory, stated in March that no significant AI-related impacts on employment have been observed. He remarked, "There’s at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates" among those whose roles involve AI tools compared to those in less tech-driven jobs. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang further dismissed the notion that AI would eliminate engineering jobs. During an interview at Stanford, he claimed that the reality is quite the opposite, stating, "software engineers are busier than ever." He emphasized that while AI tools can rapidly generate code, they also drive engineers to innovate further. This phenomenon reflects the Jevons paradox, where increased efficiency leads to heightened demand rather than reduced need. Bantock summarized the situation aptly, noting that engineers are now significantly more productive, with a seemingly endless array of tasks awaiting their expertise.