California billionaire tax faces potential 'uphill battle,' new poll finds

As the countdown to the 2026 elections begins, a contentious proposal to implement a billionaire tax in California is stirring significant debate. Recent polling data, released on Tuesday, indicates that advocates of the Billionaire Tax Act may encounter considerable resistance in a state known for its liberal leanings. The initiative, currently in the signature collection phase for inclusion on the November ballot, proposes a one-time 5% tax on the total wealth of California residents with a net worth of at least $1 billion, assessed as of January 1, 2026. Initial polling results from the Mellman Group reveal that while 48% of respondents support the measure, 38% oppose it, leaving 14% undecided. Conducted between January 6-12, the survey involved 800 voters who are likely to participate in the upcoming election. The Mellman Group, commissioned by Republican strategist Mike Murphy, noted that ballot measures starting with less than 50% support often struggle to pass. After voters were presented with both positive and negative aspects of the tax, support dipped to 46%, while opposition rose to 44%. Concerns about potential negative impacts on California's economy and job market were prevalent among respondents. "There's no love for billionaires," Murphy stated during a media briefing. "However, voters are skeptical about whether this measure will deliver on its promises." The proposed tax, backed by the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Workers West, is expected to affect around 200 individuals in California. Revenue generated from this tax would aim to address funding shortfalls in healthcare, in part due to federal budget cuts. However, the poll revealed that 69% of voters believe it is likely that billionaires would employ legal and financial strategies to evade the tax, resulting in significantly lower state revenue than anticipated. Concerns extend to the possibility of billionaires relocating their businesses out of California, posing a threat to the state’s economic landscape. Nearly half of the participants indicated that they believe legal challenges to the initiative are almost assured. The Mellman Group concluded that the data presents a daunting challenge for the tax proposal, stating, "When voters perceive that negative outcomes are more probable than positive ones, initiatives are in jeopardy." The proposal has sparked division among Silicon Valley elites, with notable tech investors openly criticizing Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, a staunch supporter of the tax. High-profile figures such as David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya have voiced their opposition, with reports indicating that tech giants like Google’s founders have left California over this initiative. In contrast, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expressed his acceptance of the tax, while Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky confirmed his commitment to remaining in the state. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei criticized the design of the tax, further highlighting the prevailing skepticism regarding its potential to resolve California's healthcare challenges. Michael Bloomfield of the Mellman Group confirmed that respondents found the messaging around safeguarding the budget from federal cuts to be the least convincing aspect of the initiative.