Block says gross profit in 2028 will approach $16 billion as company unveils 3-year outlook

Block has announced an optimistic financial outlook, predicting that its gross profit will surge to approximately $15.8 billion by 2028. This projection represents a mid-teen growth rate annually over the next three years. The announcement came during the company's first investor day event since 2022, amid growing skepticism from Wall Street, which has seen Block's stock decline by over 30% in 2025, while broader market indices have shown solid gains. Trading for Block shares was suspended around the time of this significant announcement. This guidance follows a disappointing quarterly earnings report where the company missed revenue expectations for the sixth consecutive time. In response to the challenges within the increasingly competitive point-of-sale market, Block has been diversifying its offerings, enhancing services linked to Cash App, and integrating artificial intelligence tools to benefit its sellers. According to the new projections, Block anticipates adjusted operating income will grow by about 30% each year, potentially exceeding $4.6 billion by 2028. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are also expected to increase in the low 30% range, reaching around $5.50 in three years. Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja emphasized to CNBC that Block is entering a crucial new phase of execution, noting that the company has nearly doubled its gross profit since the last investor day in 2022, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) more than tripling. In its outlook, Block has introduced a new cash flow metric designed to reflect the capital necessary for expanding its lending products, projecting this figure to exceed $4 billion, or 25% of gross profit, by 2028. For the year 2026, Block expects gross profit to increase by 17% to $11.98 billion, with both adjusted operating income and EPS anticipated to rise by more than 30%, reaching $2.7 billion and $3.20, respectively. Ahuja mentioned that Block has implemented a 'rule of 40' investment strategy, aiming for a combined revenue growth rate and profit margin exceeding 40%. She stated that the company is on track to meet this metric this year after reorganizing around a cohesive roadmap with a unified technical infrastructure. This shift is expected to facilitate quicker, more interconnected decision-making across its ecosystem. Additionally, on Wednesday, Block announced an expansion of its share repurchase program by $5 billion, complementing the $1.1 billion in remaining authorization as of September 30. The previous buyback plan was capped at $4 billion. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of Block, was present at the investor event, marking a rare public appearance for him in recent years.