Tech investor Bill Gurley says AI doomers are ignoring a lesson from the Industrial Revolution

As discussions continue about the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market, prominent tech investor Bill Gurley draws parallels between current fears and historical misconceptions from the Industrial Revolution. In a recent episode of the "All-In Podcast," Gurley argued that the anxieties surrounding AI's potential to eliminate jobs mirror the concerns that were prevalent during the onset of industrialization — concerns that ultimately proved unfounded. Gurley referenced Pope Leo XIII's 1891 encyclical, "Rerum Novarum," which cautioned that the rise of industrial capitalism could adversely affect workers and exacerbate social inequality. This remark came in response to a recent AI-focused message from Pope Leo XIV, who warned that widespread unemployment driven by AI could lead to significant social issues. "Leo XIII warned that the industrial revolution would negatively impact people's lives," Gurley stated, pointing out that the century following these warnings saw substantial improvements in living standards. He noted that, over time, the global workweek decreased from over 60 hours to 34 hours, and real wages increased significantly when adjusted for inflation. Additionally, he highlighted improvements in life expectancy, declines in workplace fatalities, and a reduction in global poverty from around 75% to below 10%. While some of Gurley's points about historical trends are well-documented, specific statistics can be challenging to verify. The UN's International Labour Organization reported that prior to the pandemic, the average global workweek was approximately 43.9 hours. Although it is widely acknowledged that real wages have risen since the Industrial Revolution, the growth has not been equally experienced by the average American worker in recent years. Research from the Economic Policy Institute indicates that productivity has surged eight times faster than wages for typical workers since 1979. Gurley attributed these advancements to technology, innovation, and capitalism, arguing that these forces contradict the warnings issued by Leo XIII. He expressed confidence that AI will not deviate from this historical trajectory, stating, "Historically, innovation has led to more prosperity for humans. I see no reason why that won't happen here." His perspective resonates with a broader trend of skepticism towards doomsday predictions about AI. Apollo's chief economist, Torsten Sløk, recently asserted that there is "zero evidence" linking AI to job losses, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon suggested that automation will likely streamline tasks rather than eliminate jobs entirely. Prominent voices in the AI industry, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, have also moderated their earlier predictions of widespread unemployment. Despite reports of layoffs at major companies like Block, Cloudflare, and IBM — where AI has been cited as a factor — many believe these layoffs might be overstated, influenced more by factors such as overhiring during the pandemic, rising interest rates, inflation, and cost-cutting measures. Gurley acknowledged that while automation may transform certain job roles, workers who adapt and incorporate AI tools into their skill set will be more competitive in the evolving job landscape. "The best way to protect yourself from AI is to become the most AI-enabled version of yourself you can be," he concluded.