Apple iPhone shipments to beat Samsung for the first time in 14 years, report says

According to a recent report from Counterpoint Research, Apple is on track to surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, with projections indicating the company will ship approximately 243 million iPhones in 2025. In contrast, Samsung is expected to ship around 235 million units, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the global smartphone market. This anticipated growth will enable Apple to capture a 19.4% share of the market, compared to Samsung's 18.7%. It’s important to note that shipments reflect the number of devices sent to retail channels rather than actual sales figures, but they nonetheless provide valuable insights into market demand and future sales expectations. Apple's recent success is largely attributed to the launch of its iPhone 17 series in September, which experienced a particularly strong holiday sales season. Counterpoint's analysis highlights that in the first month following its launch, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the U.S. were 12% higher than those of the previous iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, a vital market for Apple, sales of the new series were 18% above those of its predecessor during the same timeframe. Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang noted that the improving shipment outlook is also influenced by the replacement cycle reaching a critical point. Many consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now looking to upgrade. On the other hand, Samsung may face increasing competition in the low-to-mid tier smartphone market from Chinese manufacturers, which could hinder its efforts to reclaim the top position, according to the report. Looking ahead, Counterpoint forecasts that Apple will maintain its lead in the global smartphone market until at least 2029. The research firm points to significant factors supporting this prediction, including the sale of 358 million second-hand iPhones between 2023 and mid-2025. Users of these devices are likely to upgrade to newer models in the coming years, creating a robust demand base that will sustain shipment growth. Additionally, Apple has experienced a lower-than-anticipated impact from tariffs due to a trade truce between the U.S. and China, which has bolstered its supply chain and growth prospects in emerging markets. The company is also benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar and a favorable economic outlook, which has enhanced consumer confidence. Looking forward, Apple is set to launch the budget-friendly iPhone 17e next year, alongside a foldable smartphone. Counterpoint also anticipates significant upgrades to Siri and a major redesign of the iPhone by 2027, further solidifying Apple’s market position. By expanding its product lineup across various price points, particularly with the growing “e” series, and making strategic adjustments to its launch cycles, Apple is positioning itself to meet rising demand, especially in emerging markets. A strong preference for the iOS ecosystem and a significant number of older models in circulation will help Apple retain its lead over competitors throughout the decade.