Mega-IPOs could signal market top, say analysts as SpaceX and OpenAI prep record floats

A surge of initial public offerings (IPOs) from major companies this year has raised concerns among analysts that the market might be nearing its peak, reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. SpaceX's eagerly awaited IPO, confirmed in a recent regulatory filing, is expected to take place on June 12 and could become the largest in history. The company, founded by Elon Musk, is aiming for a staggering valuation of $1.75 trillion on the Nasdaq. In addition to SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic have also expressed plans to go public later this year. Despite their ambitious goals, all three firms have yet to report an annual profit, although Anthropic anticipates achieving its first profitable quarter soon. Analysts caution that the complexities of each company's business model may lead to uncertainty for investors eyeing these IPOs. John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks, voiced this concern during an appearance on CNBC, stating, "I see it as a market top. Everyone knows that the peak is approaching, often signaled by these massive IPOs. We witnessed a similar rush back in 1999." In its most recent quarter, SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion, following a $4.94 billion loss in 2025. While its Starlink division generated $3.26 billion in revenue—accounting for 69% of total revenues—the company’s space operations suffered a loss of $619 million, and its AI division lost $2.5 billion. This indicates that connectivity remains the sole profitable segment of the company. Notably, SpaceX's S-1 filing reveals a history of net losses and raises questions about its future profitability, stating that much of its value is contingent upon successfully developing various untested technologies. Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, highlighted the opacity of SpaceX's financials, as the company remains private with Elon Musk holding 85% of voting rights. He flagged the risk associated with SpaceX's ambitious $1.75 trillion valuation, stating that it would imply a price-to-sales ratio of 67 times, significantly higher than Nvidia's valuation based on its past financial performance. "Such a valuation could be richer than a plate of dauphinoise potatoes," he remarked. SpaceX views OpenAI as a key competitor in the artificial intelligence sector, with Sam Altman's firm also aiming to enter public markets in 2026. However, OpenAI’s lack of profitability raises concerns about the broader implications for stock markets if it and Anthropic cannot turn a profit. William de Gale, a portfolio manager at BlueBox Asset Management, warned that if these companies fail to generate revenue, it could spell trouble for their valuations. "OpenAI might decide to go public in a few months, revealing that it may never be profitable, and that could mark a significant downturn for this growth story," he suggested. Concerns about transparency were echoed by Deutsche Bank, which noted in a recent report that it remains to be seen how public markets will assess OpenAI and its peers once they disclose their financials and clarify the confusing aspects of their business models. As these companies prepare for their IPOs, the market watches closely for signs of stability and potential pitfalls ahead.