A new study finds more bad news for entry-level coders

A recent study from Stanford University has unveiled a challenging landscape for early-career coders, revealing significant employment declines linked to the rise of artificial intelligence. Researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen noted that while various factors may influence these trends, their findings strongly suggest that generative AI is beginning to reshape entry-level job opportunities. The research highlighted that young workers, particularly those aged 22 to 25 in professions vulnerable to AI, experienced a 13% relative decline in employment after accounting for external shocks like shifts in interest rates. Software engineers and customer service representatives were identified as some of the most affected roles, with employment for this demographic dropping sharply after 2022, even as job growth continued for older age groups. By July 2025, the study predicts that the employment rate for young developers could plummet by almost 20% compared to its peak in late 2022. In contrast, those with more experience in similar roles, as well as workers in industries less susceptible to AI, have seen their job stability or growth persist. This trend became particularly pronounced following the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022, which marked a turning point in AI deployment across various sectors. Despite these challenges, the study also pointed to some positive outcomes of AI integration. Jobs where AI serves to enhance rather than replace human effort have shown growth potential. The researchers utilized data from ADP, the largest payroll processing company in the U.S., which provided insights from 3.5 to 5 million workers monthly for their analysis. Hiring in tech has notably slowed since the pandemic's hiring surge, with an Indeed Hiring Lab report indicating that job opportunities in the sector have dwindled since mid-2023 after reaching a peak in early 2022. This decline has been attributed to automation processes impacting job postings and broader economic conditions as the industry adjusts post-pandemic. Furthermore, a separate July analysis by the Burning Glass Institute highlighted that the unemployment rate for Gen Z and younger millennials in computer and math roles has risen since pre-pandemic times. Tech executives have openly acknowledged the potential threats AI poses to their talent pools. For instance, Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg suggested that companies might soon employ AI capable of performing mid-level engineering tasks, while Klarna's CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, paused hiring, asserting that AI can handle many traditional human roles. Shopify's CEO, Tobi Lütke, stated that new hires must now prove their necessity over AI capabilities, a sentiment echoed by Duolingo's CEO, Luis von Ahn, who announced plans to phase out contractors for tasks that AI could effectively perform.