Morgan Stanley: Nearly half of online shoppers will use AI agents by 2030, adding $115 billion to US e-commerce

The landscape of online shopping is on the brink of a transformation, thanks to the rise of AI-powered shopping agents. A recent note from Morgan Stanley has revealed that nearly half of all online shoppers in the U.S. are expected to utilize these intelligent assistants by 2030, which could inject an impressive $115 billion into the U.S. e-commerce market. These innovative tools, described as 'agentic commerce,' are designed to enhance the online shopping experience by offering personalized product recommendations, conducting price comparisons, and managing orders effectively. Morgan Stanley emphasized that the growth of agentic commerce represents a significant breakthrough enabled by generative AI, suggesting it could drastically alter the online shopping funnel and impact retailers and digital advertisers alike. The report highlights the urgency for retailers to develop their own AI shopping assistants, with major players like Amazon launching Rufus, Walmart introducing Sparky, and Target rolling out an app powered by ChatGPT. Recently, OpenAI expanded ChatGPT's functionality to include a 'shopping research' feature aimed at helping users find products that best suit their needs. In preparation for the holiday shopping season, Google has also upgraded its AI shopping tools, including an assistant that can make calls to local stores on behalf of users. Morgan Stanley predicts that personalized grocery shopping will be a crucial driver for the expansion of agentic commerce. Beyond groceries, categories such as household products, personal care items, and apparel are also expected to see significant benefits from the adoption of AI shopping agents. Amazon has taken the lead in this space with its Rufus tool, which is projected to contribute over $700 million in operating profit this year. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently mentioned that Rufus could potentially drive $10 billion in additional annual sales, while also acknowledging the need for ongoing improvements in customer experience. "We're very excited about the long-term potential of agentic commerce," Jassy stated during an analyst call in October. "The promise is that AI and agentic commerce solutions will significantly increase the volume of shopping that occurs online."