Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are bigger than the last 25 years of tech exits

The recent surge in tech IPOs, particularly with SpaceX's entry into public markets and the anticipated openings from Anthropic and OpenAI, underscores a monumental shift in the financial landscape. A recent report from NCVA-Pitchbook Venture Monitor highlights the astonishing scale of these developments, revealing that the upcoming IPOs from these companies could eclipse all U.S. venture capital-backed exits in the past 25 years. With SpaceX already valued at an impressive $1.77 trillion, the combined market caps of Anthropic and OpenAI are projected to push this total beyond $4 trillion. In stark contrast, last year's U.S.-based IPOs brought in only about $70 billion in proceeds, showcasing the unprecedented financial impact these new public offerings are expected to create. It is important to note that this analysis excludes international companies, such as Alibaba, and focuses on "value created" rather than just liquid cash. Many groundbreaking innovations emerged from firms that were already public—like the launches of the iPhone, Android, YouTube, and Instagram— thereby not affecting the IPO figures. Still, the tech industry has experienced significant activities in the last quarter-century, with landmark IPOs from giants such as Google, Tesla, and Meta, all of which are now market leaders. In addition, notable acquisitions include LinkedIn, Slack, and WhatsApp, each fetching over $20 billion. Comparatively, Uber’s $84 billion IPO in 2019 now appears modest against the backdrop of SpaceX's recent valuation. Several factors contribute to this dramatic shift: tech companies are remaining private for longer periods, with the likes of Google likely waiting for a more lucrative IPO window today. Moreover, the capital-intensive requirements for AI training have led to intense fundraising efforts and soaring valuations. Regardless, the scale of these upcoming public offerings is set to challenge the current financial infrastructure in ways the industry has never seen before.