Adobe predicts AI-assisted online shopping to grow 520% during the 2025 U.S. holiday season

Adobe Analytics has unveiled exciting predictions for the upcoming U.S. holiday shopping season, forecasting a remarkable $253.4 billion in online sales, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year. These insights are drawn from an analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, covering a vast array of 100 million products across 18 categories. The report highlights Cyber Monday as set to be the peak shopping day, anticipated to climb 6.3% year-over-year to reach $14.2 billion. Black Friday is also projected to see significant growth, with expected sales of $11.7 billion, an increase of 8.3% from last year. Moreover, Thanksgiving Day shoppers are predicted to spend $6.4 billion online, marking a 4.9% rise as early online sales gain momentum. Central to this season's sales surge is consumers' appetite for discounts, with an average expected markdown of 28% on listed prices. Notably, the report emphasizes a substantial shift towards artificial intelligence in shopping, predicting a staggering 520% increase in AI-related traffic during the holiday season, peaking in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows an astonishing 1,300% rise in AI traffic noted in 2024. A survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers revealed that 53% are likely to leverage AI for research prior to making purchases. The data also indicated that 40% would utilize AI for product recommendations, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift ideas. Categories expected to see the most AI engagement include toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care. Mobile shopping continues to dominate, with projections showing that mobile devices will account for a record 56.1% of online spending, surpassing last year's 54.5%. The growth trend raises questions about when this mobile surge will stabilize, particularly as larger smartphone screens facilitate easier online shopping. Additionally, the holiday shopping season is set to witness the continued rise of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, projected to contribute $20.2 billion to online spending, an 11% increase year-over-year, exceeding 2024 figures. Cyber Monday is expected to mark a BNPL milestone, with online spend in this category reaching $1.04 billion, up 5% year-over-year. Social media's role in driving online sales is also highlighted, with a 51% year-over-year increase in revenue attributed to social media advertising, a significant rise compared to the 5% growth seen in 2024. The leading categories for spending include electronics at $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY), apparel at $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY), and furniture at $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY).