An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE

In a remarkable turn of events, Alan Cole, an international tax accountant, made headlines by successfully betting against a forecast on the prediction market Kalshi. The contract in question speculated that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would significantly cut federal spending within a year, a notion that Cole found hard to believe. Cole, who had closely followed the discourse surrounding federal budget cuts, recognized the inherent challenges in such predictions. Despite DOGE's attempts to streamline operations by reducing some federal contracts and workforce, Cole argued that existing financial obligations and the increasing federal debt would persist. Taking a calculated risk, he wagered his life savings, exceeding $342,000, on the premise that the federal budget would not shrink as predicted. His investment grew to encompass 3% of a Kalshi market that had swelled to $12 million, aided by some strategic hedging bets along the way. The pivotal moment arrived when the government published the year-end spending report for 2025 on February 20, revealing an increase in expenditures compared to 2024. This outcome enabled Cole to walk away with an impressive $470,300, translating to a net gain of $128,000 from his audacious gamble.